| 摘要: |
| 不同于仅关注小国模型下援助—贸易关系的已有研究，本文首次将援助竞争纳入分析框架，利用集中度概念构建了援助竞争度量指标并建立面板模型估计援助竞争对中非贸易的影响及其机制。研究发现：考虑援助竞争后中国援助具有稳健的促进贸易效应，且美国、欧盟和日本的援助竞争均未抑制中非贸易；援助竞争对中非贸易的影响存在显著的门限效应，援助贸易效应因援助规模、受援国经济发展水平和经济规模产生异质性；中国援助通过经济基础设施而非社会基础设施影响中非贸易，且存在援助竞争通过社会基础设施发挥调节作用的证据。本文研究启示，我们应理性看待援助竞争对中国与受援国经贸关系发展的影响，并为中国与其他援助国的援助合力提供了证据。 |
| 关键词: 援助竞争 中非贸易 援助 门限回归模型 基础设施 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:上海市哲学社会科学规划课题“大国竞争背景下对外援助对贸易影响机理、效应测度与中国策略研究”(项目编号:2022BJL003)。 |
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| Does Aid Competition Lead to a Decrease in Sino-African Trade？ |
| SUN Zesheng,TIAN Qian |
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| Abstract: |
| In contrast to previous studies focusing on aid-trade relations merely under the small-country model, aid competition is included in the framework of empirical analysis for the first time in this paper, which uses the concept of concentration ratio to construct aid competition indicators and establishes a panel model to estimate the impact of aid competition on Sino-African trade and its mechanism. The findings are as follows: (1) After considering aid competition, China’s aid still shows a stable trade promotion effect and aid competition from the United States, the European Union, and Japan have not reduced Sino-African trade. (2) There is a significant threshold effect on the impact of aid competition on Sino african trade, the effect of aid-trade is heterogeneous due to the scale of aid, the level of economic development and size of economy in recipients. (3) China’s aid influences Sino-African trade through economic infrastructure rather than social infrastructure, and there is evidence that aid competition plays a moderate role through social infrastructure. This paper suggests that the impact of aid competition on the development of economic and trade relations between China and the recipients should be viewed rationally. In addition, it provides evidence for China’s aid cooperation with other donors. |
| Key words: aid competition Sino-African trade aid threshold regression model infrastructure |
