| 摘要: |
| 特朗普政府加征的禁止性关税将使中美双方货物贸易短期内陷入“休克”。对等关税政策表层原因是特朗普无法容忍美国长期的巨额贸易逆差，但真实目的是想通过“一国一议”对等关税手段振兴美国制造业，其特定行业对等关税政策类似于幼稚性产业保护政策。特朗普政府测算的对等关税人为夸大了对等关税税率，国际主流文献研究表明美国对中国商品加征的关税几乎完全转嫁到美国进口品价格上。对等关税政策将使中国转口贸易受堵，拖累中国及其相关伙伴的经济增长，破坏全球产业链和多边自由贸易体系，不利于美国经济增长，也加剧中美科技相对“脱钩”，放大中国资本市场的波动，更造成美股市值严重缩水。中国的应对策略包括：单边措施如反制关税、出口管制等；积极进行双边贸易磋商，增加更多产品关税豁免机会；发挥多边协议效力，构筑反制特朗普关税的统一战线；发挥行业协会自律作用 ,企业加大自主创新；扩大和优化免签及离境即退税政策；夯实经贸内力，应对外部环境复杂变化。 |
| 关键词: 特朗普政府 对等关税 关税转嫁 中美经贸 |
| DOI： |
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| 基金项目:教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“双循环格局下中国推动产业链供应链多元化研究”(项目编号:22JJD790013)。 |
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| The Impact of the Trump Administration’s Reciprocal Tari. Policy on Sino-U.S. Economic and Trade Relations and Countermeasures |
| SHEN Guobing |
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| Abstract: |
| The prohibitive tariffs imposed by the Trump administration have led to a short-term“shock”in bilateral goods trade between China and the U.S. On the surface, the reciprocal tariff policy stems from Trump’s inability to tolerate the U.S.’s long-standing massive trade deficit. However, its real purpose is to revitalize American manufacturing through“country-by-country”reciprocal tariff measures, with its sector-specific reciprocal tariff policy resembling infant industry protection policies. The reciprocal tariff rates calculated by the Trump administration are artificially exaggerated. Mainstream international literature studies indicate that nearly all tariffs the U.S. has imposed on Chinese goods are fully passed on to U.S. import prices. The reciprocal tariff policy will block China’s entrepot trade, drag down the economic growth of China and its related partners, disrupt global industrial chains and the multilateral free trade system, also hinder U.S. economic growth, intensify the relative“decoupling”of Sino-U.S. technology, amplify fluctuations in China’s capital markets, and cause a serious shrinkage in U.S. stock market valuations. China’s countermeasures include: unilateral measures such as retaliatory tariffs and export controls; bilateral active trade consultations to increase opportunities for tariff exemptions for more products; multilateral efforts to leverage the effectiveness of multilateral agreements and build a united front against Trump’s tariffs; industry associations needing to play a role in self-discipline, and firms needing to increase independent innovation; and the government expanding and optimizing visa-free policies and exit tax refund policies to consolidate economic and trade resilience and address complex changes in the external environment. |
| Key words: Trump administration reciprocal tariffs tariff pass-through Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations |
